Turkey and Israel – The Return to the Strategic Axis of the New Middle East

Israel

Between Stagnation and Renewal: The Story Behind the Rapprochement

Opinion – By Shmuel Shay, Entrepreneur and Economic Advisor for the Abraham Accords

The relationship between Israel and Turkey has gone through severe turbulence over the past decade, swinging between close regional cooperation and near-complete diplomatic freeze. Yet behind these political fluctuations lies a simple truth: Turkey and Israel are destined to cooperate. The two countries share strategic interests  security, economic, and energy-based  and the post-Hamas, post-war Middle East creates a clear geopolitical necessity: the unification of regional axes.

This understanding is not coincidental. It is part of a broader framework of a new international policy vision, rooted in the Abraham Accords led by President Donald Trump  a vision seeking to replace old conflicts with regional economic cooperation, connecting the Gulf, Africa, Europe, and Israel through bridges of infrastructure, energy, education, and innovation.

Trump, Turkey, and the Global Vision

President Trump recognized early on the geographic and strategic importance of Turkey as a key nation. It is the “connecting link” between the Middle East and Europe, between Asia and the Mediterranean basin. According to his approach, any regional network  whether of energy corridors, trade routes, or smart logistics systems  cannot truly exist without Turkey’s integration.

Indeed, in the peace conferences Trump initiated in recent years, there were clear signs of the American intention to bring Ankara back to the table. Although Turkey was not an official signatory to the Abraham Accords, it was invited as a senior observer to regional summits, out of recognition that excluding it could create a dangerous vacuum between the Arab world and Europe. Trump granted Turkey diplomatic respect  not as a political favor, but as a calculated step to preserve global stability.

Ego, Status, and the Missed Opportunity

One of the main reasons for the tensions between Israel and Turkey in recent years stemmed from Ankara’s sense of exclusion from the Abraham Accords framework. Like Qatar, which was also left out of the initial circle of agreements, Turkey sought ways to reinsert itself into the regional dialogue  sometimes through harsh rhetoric and sometimes through diplomatic steps perceived as hostile toward Jerusalem.

Yet behind this posture lies a clear motive: President Erdoğan’s desire to restore Turkey’s historic role as a mediating regional power. Turkey cannot afford to remain outside the new era  an era defined by economic peace, infrastructural connectivity, and unprecedented regional partnership. Thus, Ankara’s sharp statements toward Israel did not stem from ideology or hostility, but from a strategic need to draw renewed attention to its regional role.

The New Route: Turkey as the Bridge to Europe

Integrating Turkey into the Abraham Accords is not merely a political decision  it is a major economic imperative.
The emerging axis  from Africa, through the Gulf, Israel, and Turkey to Bulgaria and Europe  forms the backbone of a new regional economy. This network of trade, energy, and logistics will channel goods, gas, information, and innovation along a continuous route, serving as an alternative to China, Russia, and outdated geographic power models.

In this sense, Turkey is not just a “desired partner”  it is an indispensable one. Without its ports, infrastructure, and land bridge to Europe, the Abraham Accords cannot become a fully functional economic platform. The renewal of relations with Israel is the key to bringing Turkey back into this system, enabling collaboration in energy, security, and advanced technology.

Looking Ahead: Peace, Interests, and a Broader Vision

There is little doubt that in the coming weeks and months, we will witness the beginning of a new phase.
All existing restrictions, political tensions, and diplomatic barriers are expected to dissolve, paving the way for renewed cooperation.
Israel will find in Turkey a regional partner of significant weight, while Turkey will find in Israel a technological and strategic gateway to Europe and the Gulf.

Ultimately, this is an irreversible process: the new Middle East is being built on a foundation of pragmatic peace, guided by President Trump’s vision. Those who recognize this new reality and join it will prosper; those who resist it will be left behind.

Turkey’s return to the regional table is not a “compromise”  it is a strategic necessity. And it will happen not because anyone will force it, but because global logic, economic growth, and the future itself demand it.